West Memphis OEM issues 2024 Winter Outlook
‘La Niña’ could impact local temperatures, precipitation
By RALPH HARDIN
ralphhardin@gmail.com
Each year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) releases an extended forecast for the winter months, and in October NOAA issued the 2024 Winter Outlook to the National Weather Service and its af_liates. Last week, DeWayne Rose, director of the West Memphis Of_ce of Emergency Management shared important data from the forecast with the community “Here is your 2024 Winter Outlook for the Mid-South,” said Rose. “As a weak La Niña is favored to emerge by the end of November and persist through March 2025, the Mid-South is likely to experience a warmer and drier winter (December-February) season.”
La Niña is a climate pattern in which the impacts (particularly precipitation) are felt more during the winter months.
“This is due to the location of the jet stream,” Rose explained. “This winter, the jet stream is favored to support a more northerly storm track, resulting in higher chances of above-normal precipitation in the Paci_c Northwest and Great Lakes region. This jet stream placement results in equal chances of above or below-normal precipitation across West Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel.”
Rose said this also will likely result in below-normal precipitation (33-40 percent chance) across north Mississippi. Normal precipitation for the entire winter season ranges from 12-16” (water equivalent of melted snow included).
“While La Niña’s impacts are mostly related to precipitation, temperatures can also be inuenced,” said Rose. “The entire Mid-South has a 33-50 percent chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures during the December-February period. Average temperatures across the region range from 40-45” throughout the season and average snowfall across the Mid-South is generally 1-5”. Areas north of I-40 average 2-5” of snow while areas to the south average only 1-2”.” Southern areas of the region can experience less snow and northern areas of the region can experience more. Climatology shows that snow across the Mid-South is most likely to occur in January and February. Northernmost areas (like Jonesboro, Arkansas, or Paris, Tennessee) have a prolonged snow season beginning in December and ending as late as March.
While there is a 30 percent chance of a moderate La Niña, there is only about a 5 percent chance of a strong La Niña.
Desiree Meadows, meteorologist and Winter Program Leader with the National Weather Service’s Memphis, Tennessee of_ce explained some of the forecast models used to make these long-range estimates.
“Historically, comparing the most recent previous 11 weak La Niña episodes, temperatures have ranged from 6 degrees above or below normal and precipitation has ranged from 50 percent below normal to 150 percent above normal (indicative of not a strong correlation),” said Meadows. “The geographical location of the Mid-South relative to the prevailing jet stream can reduce the temperature-precipitation correlation, making the region highly dependent on sub-seasonal variations in weather patterns. Nonetheless, a drier and warmer winter is expected, which is likely to result in a continuation of drought conditions and the potential for further deterioration.”
While temperatures in recent weeks have been above normal for this time of year, with some record daily highs being reported in the Mid-South, Tuesday’s cooling trend is expected to continue for the foreseeable future, with daytime highs in the high 60s to low 70s, overnight lows in the mid-50s, and rain in the forecast for the weekend.
ROSE
“As a weak La Niña is favored to emerge by the end of November and persist through March 2025, the Mid-South is likely to experience a warmer and drier winter (December-February) season.”
DEWAYNE ROSE
Manager, West Memphis Office of Emergency Management
