Picking the Pats

Chuck’’s Corrnerr

By Chuck Livingston

Picking the Pats

There’s really nothing like a road trip in the fall to cover a football game. You stop off and fill your car up, you get a 20-ounce. If you’re like me, then you have your gameday playlist ready to go and you drive for however long until you get to the stadium. It’s really everything that’s great about high school sports.

I love home games too, of course. But it’s more of an event to go see different stadiums, and eat at different restaurants and just see some new stuff.

Last year, I made predictions for each of the four area schools, and it was so well-read that I decided that I absolutely had to do it again.

Understand, I think that it was well-read because of how astronomically wrong I was about every school except for Earle.

I had the Bulldogs earmarked for an 8-2 regular season record, and a flawless 7-0 conference mark. I had the overall tally correct as Earle finished 8-3 after a playoff loss, but they actually went 6-1 in the league, losing the finale to Cross County.

As a refresher, I picked Marion at 3-7 and the Pats went 5-7 with a playoff win. I was close with a 4-6 regular season record, but honestly would probably not picked Marion to win in the postseason.

I was close – within reason – on Marion, but I was not close with West Memphis. I had the Blue Devils at 7-3 overall, but the blue-clad warriors went just 5-6 overall, losing a first-round playoff game on the road to Class 7A state champion Fayetteville.

I had West Memphis Christian at 4-6, but the Black Knights got stuffed by a rough non-league schedule en route to a 2-8 season with no postseason appearance.

So today, I’m doing it again. Call it Prognostication Week 2016 or whatever you like.

I’m going to start today with Marion and end with West Memphis Christian on Friday. That is also the date of the Black Knights’ home opener.

Friday, September 2, at Wynne: 28-22 loss The Wynne game kicked off a renaissance of sorts for Marion last season.

The offense was crisp and the defense came up with the play of the night as then-junior defensive back Kabryn Williams picked up a fumble and ran 99 for a scoop-and-score.

The 26-23 victory over Wynne extended Marion’s home winning streak against the Yellowjackets to 12 years, with its last loss coming in 2003.

However, Wynne has also enjoyed success against Marion at home, and opening the season on the road with a new quarterback and at least three new offensive linemen isn’t an ideal scenario.

So I’m giving this one to the Yellowjackets by a hair. Friday, September 9, Jackson, Missouri: 32-27 loss Marion returns to Patriot Stadium for a contest for the first time since a Week 10 loss to Jonesboro last November.

The teams combined for all the points and yards in a 46-31 Jonesboro win.

I’m not going to pretend like I know a ton about Jackson, other than they apparently travel well and average right at seven wins a year over the past six seasons.

That’s a lot of tradition for the Pats to overcome as Marion is still striving to become a power year-in and year-out.

I also just simply don’t know how much different football is played in Missouri as opposed to here.

An added bonus for Jackson is that they open their season on August 19, which means that they’ll have at least two varsity games under their belts when they come to Marion. Friday, September 16, at Blytheville Chickasaws: 27-20 win The Pats post one in the win column in a place where their 2014 season probably cratered out in a 51-0 loss.

I really like what Blytheville has been able to do over the past two years as the Chicks have made consecutive playoff appearances and even shared the 5A-East league title with Batesville and Wynne last year.

However, few schools were rocked by graduation harder than Blytheville, as six 2016 graduates signed to play college football.

That’s a lot of talent and ability to replace in one offseason.

Granted, Marion lost a lot of leadership as well, but the drop-off should be less. Added up, I think Marion gets a nice injection of momentum and confidence the week before opening conference play against a team that you may have heard of.

Friday, September 23, West Memphis Blue Devils: 31-21 loss The Marion-West Memphis game is one that often leads to befuddling results.

Obviously, West Memphis owns a 12-0 record against Marion all time, but the game itself is a often overshadowed by off-the-field spectacles.

Just last year, you had the great Twitter war of 2015 that raged on from the time that Marion came back to beat Blytheville at Patriot Stadium until the clock at Hamilton-Shultz Field hit all zeroes with a Blue Devil win.

You had vandalism at Marion, complete with a coffin by the sign at the high school.

In short, 2015 had it all.

My reason for making this pick is simple: I’ll always pick West Memphis until Marion actually beats them. Period.

It’s not that I don’t think Marion can win, I just can’t call it until it happens.

Friday, September 30, Little Rock Hall Warriors: 45-13 win A 1-3 start isn’t what Patriot Nation had envisioned, but the schedule makers were thinking of the Pats in Week 5.

Following a potentially grueling opening four weeks, capped by what’s sure to be a knock-down, drag-out war against West Memphis the previous week, Little Rock Hall comes to town.

To give you a glance into the mentality of Hall, I remember a story that my good friend Billy Woods shared with me from a few years back.

It was prior to the 7A/6AEast blended conference when West Memphis played at Hall.

The Blue Devils were all over the Warriors, basically naming their score at halftime.

During the break, Hall introduced its basketball team, which so happened to be headlined by future Arkansas Razorback and Chicago Bull Bobby Portis. That event was greeted with the biggest applause of the night.

Marion by as many as it wants to or can in this one.

Friday, October 7, at Searcy Lions: 24-22 win In every season, there are two or three swing games that ultimately decide what type of year your team will have.

In Marion’s case last season, those three games were Jonesboro, Mountain Home and Searcy.

Winning two out of those three games would have kept the Pats at home for the first round of the playoffs, a big deal in the postseason.

This season, in my opinion, Searcy is a swing game again.

Look at it this way: In the conference, Marion should beat Hall and Mountain Home, making a playoff appearance a near-certainty. Any game that they win after that, theoretically moves them up a playoff spot going forward.

Enter Searcy and a team that has been a thorn in Crittenden County’s side (eight straight wins against Marion and West Memphis) for the past four years.

The upside for the Pats is that they’ll be riding high after a game against Hall.

The downside is that it’s on the road.

From where I sit today, Searcy is the key game for the 2016 Marion Patriots. And as of today, I think they win and improve to 33.

Friday, October 14, Mountain Home Bombers: 42-20 win It’s all going Marion’s way now.

Now you see why the Searcy game is such a crucial outing, as Marion plays its two most winnable league games around the road trip to White County.

This is homecoming for Marion and will be a key test for the Pats’ playoff destiny.

Marion hasn’t lost to Mountain Home since 2008 and slapped together its best all-around performance on the road there last year.

The importance here is that Marion can’t overlook Mountain Home, even after what should be a rugged affair in Searcy.

However, Marion should have too much big-play potential for the Bombers to compete with.

Friday, October 21, at Pine Bluff Zebras: 45-18 loss Look, all good things must come to an end.

The Zebras lost plenty of heroes from their back-toback Class 6A state champions, but they won’t fall off the map.

I will say that if Marion invades Pine Bluff on a three-game winning streak (as I have them doing here), then they could be a tough out on a late fall evening, but Pine Bluff should have enough to win.

Friday, October 28, Jacksonville Titans: 28-24 loss And here is swing game number 2.

The Red Devils were just 2-7 in 2015, but absorbed the North Pulaski School District and were elevated from a Class 5A school to Class 6A.

This is a renewal of an old rivalry from when Marion first joined Class 6A. In fact, one of Marion’s biggest football wins in school history came in Jacksonville in Week 10 of 2006 on a chilly, rainy night that allowed the Pats to clinch the famous four-way tie for the 6A-East that season.

The stakes for this installment are the same as the Searcy game. If Marion gets swept against those two schools, they’re bound for a number 6 seed.

A split probably nets them a number 5 seed, and a slightly easier first-round playoff game. Think El Dorado or Benton rather than Greenwood.

A sweep of Searcy and Jacksonville moves Marion to a 4-3 league record and a three or four seed. The three seed would keep them at home for a first round game against Siloam Springs, Russellville or Texarkana.

Thursday, November 3 at Jonesboro Golden Hurricane: 44-31 loss For some reason, this game is always more competitive than you’d think prior to kickoff.

Jonesboro has owned Marion in recent years (eight straight wins since a 34-0 Marion win in 2007), but that also includes a dry spell for the Pats where the Golden Hurricane definitely had far more talent than Marion did.

Jonesboro won 24-22 in 2010 and 13-12 in 2011, as well as a 35-0 win in 2014 (Marion was 1-10 that year) and a high-scoring thrill ride last year that featured Tom Young’s famous run in a 56-41 Jonesboro win.

Again, Jonesboro has been better with more athletes, but Marion always seems to keep it close.

My theory is that anything can happen on a short week. Think about it: Week 10 is usually played on a Thursday night and while there have been some cold games (2011, 2013 and 2014 come to mind), there have also been some really nice weather, last year’s game that was in the 70’s all night.

I think Jonesboro is better still and they could be a factory in the conference title hunt at this point, but craziness will happen in this game, and if Marion gets better every week, they could be peaking around this time of the year.

Today, I have Marion at 46 overall and 3-4 in the 6AEast. That would almost assuredly get them into the playoffs, but I can’t even act like I know where they’d be seeded with that record.

As always, thanks for reading.